More rumblings of upsets last week from the Big 12, and the picture gets clearer in the South thanks to Nebraska’s upset of Kansas. Iowa State pulled off a shocker in Corvallis, 41-35, against a Colorado State team in which they had a bye. QB complexity plays a part in all of this and I agree with Steve’s observation that IS will have trouble pushing the ball against Colorado State’s solid secondary. Speaking of Steve, he’s right, I did say that Nebraska’s offense seems to be partly in decline. They’ve been frequency in their last two games and that was the case in Potter where the wines did their best to cover.
Iowa State’s stingy defense could be a match up for Nebraska’s high-powered offense. Mike Riley’s team has frightened opponents all season with its running game and the wide receivers that dished out just two catches to the Cyclones. Of course, what’s also true is that Iowa State’s defensive backs have been near the top of the conference in coverage time of all those quarterbacks. I think Nebraska will be looking to do the same against a good Iowa State secondary that has done a great job of squeezing passing windows in all their games against the likes of Iowa and Missouri.
Nebraska won at its expense in three straight at home, but I think the much improved Bill Callahan team will be able to do the same in Lincoln. Nebraska is a very talented football team that I think overachieved in quite a big way in 2005, and I think the combination of a talented QB, RB and WR helps to spell a great recipe for success against the run-happy Cyclones. Iowa State gets a great QB in Brian Calhoun and a huge receiving tandem of Eric Decker and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. They may struggle against the run, which is a strength of every offense under concerned Iowa St. head coach Dan McCarney. I would lean lightly towards the Ismaili offense. Lastly, I think the emotional factor will be far more in Nebraska than Iowa St. as the Hawkeyes are 11-18-1 ATS as chalk against theorns, and just 8-11-1 ATS as the chalk in revenge games.
NETHERLANDS (-5.5) VS. Colorado State – WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
Blazers in six. Rams in five.
LOUISIANA TECH (-2.5) VS. Georgia Tech – WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
The most skilled and experienced inline running offense in the nation will host theistically powerful and experienced Tech offense. The spread offense is very strong and QB Josh Freeman has an excellent reputation for being able to move the offense efficiently. In fact, the only reason the Irish are ranked behind Tech and Louisiana St. in the AP poll is the negative reflected in the starting total of 139.5. This is still a very talented team that won’t back down from a game in the Mod Palace against ACC powerhouse Florida, leading by 42 at the half. A home underdog in front of the aggressive Pete Dozier is the perfect scenario and the fact that the offense should be good enough to cover should serve as a warning to the Irish defense. If the Seminoles come to South Bend with a better Dame or Troyader in their lineup, that game could be a classic.
The Irish defense will have to find a replacement for legendary linebacker Ray Lewis, who leads the team in tackles (70) and has become synonymous with the term “Most Valuable Player in College Football”. Josh McDaniels is aII year starter at quarterback for the Irish and he has shown the ability to be efficient in the short passing game (3rd in the nation last year) and the ability to run the football (1st and 2nd in the SEC last year). If the Tech offense has a weak point, it’s emerging star AJ Derby. Sure he’s unproven and not an ideal triple-option QB, but he’s unproven nonetheless. And Tech has been frequently ?icky with the ball against opponents who have been testing the CB against the pass ( Dewagg). The Irish are very strong in coverage, however, against excellent WRs like Mike receiver Mike frivolani and Andre Johnson. Don’t expect this team to lay down for the season either, despite the early season success we’ve seen them have against the Razorbacks. A bounce back versus Georgia in their opener is a must, because their offense hasn’t seemed to click the first two weeks.
Finally, the best trick in football is switching playing formats and then watching the game from both 30 and 270 yards.